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There is another use of the estimated model I. Suppose the Presi- dent decides to propose a reduction in the income tax. What will be the ef- fect of such a policy on income and thereby on consumption vsica and ultimately on employment? Suppose that, as a result of the proposed policy change, investment ex- penditure increases.

What will be the effect on the economy? That is, an increase decrease of a dollar in investment will even- tually lead to more than a threefold increase decrease in income; note that it takes time for the multiplier to work. The critical value in this computation is MPC, for econo,etria multiplier depends on it.

And this estimate of the MPC can be obtained from regression models such as I. Thus, a quantitative estimate of MPC provides valuable in- formation for policy purposes. Suppose further the government believes that consumer expenditure of about billions of dollars will keep the unemployment rate at its Gujarati: What level of income will guarantee the target amount of consumption expenditure?


If the regression results given in I. That is, an income level of about billion dollars, given an MPC of about 0.

As these calculations suggest, an estimated model may be used for con- trol, or policy, purposes. Choosing among Competing Models When a governmental agency e. Department of Commerce col- lects economic data, such as that shown in Bsicca I. How then does one know that the data really support the Keynesian theory of consumption?

Gujarati – Econometria Básica

Is it because the Keynesian consumption function i. Is it possible that an- Gujarati: Miller, Fact and Method: For ex- ample, Milton Friedman has developed a model of consumption, called the permanent income hypothesis. In short, the question facing a researcher in practice is how to choose among competing hypotheses or models of a given phenomenon, such as the consumption—income relationship.

What strengthens a hypothesis, here, is a victory that is, at the same time, a defeat for a plausible rival. Here the advice given by Clive Granger is worth keeping in mind: What economic decisions does it help with? I think attention to such questions will strengthen economic research and discussion. As we progress through this book, we will come across several competing hypotheses trying to explain various economic phenomena.

For example, students of economics are familiar with the concept of the production func- tion, which is basically a relationship between output and inputs say, capi- tal and labor. In the literature, two of the best known are the Cobb—Douglas and the constant elasticity of substitution production functions. The eight-step classical econometric methodology discussed above is neutral in the sense that it can be used to test any of these rival hypotheses.



Is it possible to develop a methodology that is comprehensive enough to dconometria competing hypotheses? This is an involved and controversial topic. We will discuss it in Chapter 13, after we have acquired the necessary econometric theory. In each category, one can approach the subject in the clas- sical or Bayesian tradition.

In this book the emphasis is on the classical approach.

For the Bayesian approach, the reader may consult the refer- ences given at the end of the chapter. In this aspect, econometrics leans heavily on mathematical statistics. For example, one of the methods used extensively in this book is least squares. This book is concerned largely with the development of econometric methods, their assumptions, their uses, their limitations.

These methods are illustrated.